Stanford Retests 50 Well-Known LLM Findings on 20 Models: 44% Have Expired, Median Shelf Life About 15 Months
On November 2, Stanford researchers Owen Queen and James Zou published an interactive report, "The shelf life of LLM findings", retesting 50 widely cited claims about LLM behavior on 20 models released from July 2024 to September 2026 by eight developers. Verdict: 22 claims (44%) expired, 17 (34%) weakened, 8 (16%) persist and 3 (6%) strengthened; the median time from publication to expiration for expired claims was 14.7 months. Capability failures such as letter counting, lost-in-the-middle and fabricated citations have largely faded, while preference issues such as sycophancy and judges favoring their own answers persist.

Key Takeaways
- 50 claims, 20 models, eight developers; verdicts reflect fitted effects as of September 30, 2026.
- 44% expired, 34% weakened, 16% persist, 6% strengthened; expired claims had a median lifetime of 14.7 months (mean 15.7).
- Kaplan-Meier estimates put the expired share at about 4%, 16% and 39% six months, one year and two years after publication.
- Citation fabrication is expired overall, yet Qwen3.7-Flash still fabricated 69% of references in the same test (about 1% for Sonnet 5.5, 0% for GPT-6.1 Sol).
- The pipelines were built with Claude Code and Codex; 43 of 48 reproduction checks matched the original papers within tolerance.

